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Title: Temperature and heat in informal settlements in Nairobi Vulnerability and “Hotspot” Mapping
Publication by: Scott AA, Misiani H, Okoth J, Jordan A, Gohlke J, Ouma G, et al.
Publication Date: 2017
Abstract:

Nairobi, Kenya exhibits a wide variety of micro-climates and heterogeneous surfaces. Paved roads and high-rise buildings interspersed with low vegetation typify the central business district, while large neighborhoods of informal settlements or “slums” are characterized by dense, tin housing, little vegetation, and limited access to public utilities and services. To investigate how heat varies within Nairobi, we deployed a high density observation network in 2015/2016 to examine summertime temperature and humidity. We show how temperature, humidity and heat index differ in several informal settlements, including in Kibera, the largest slum neighborhood in Africa, and find that temperature and a thermal comfort index known colloquially as the heat index regularly exceed measurements at the Dagoretti observation station by several degrees Celsius. These temperatures are within the range of temperatures previously associated with mortality increases of several percent in youth and elderly populations in informal settlements. We relate these changes to surface properties such as satellite-derived albedo, vegetation indices, and elevation.


For the vulnerable populations, competing needs for water from domestic livestock, irrigated crops and industrial uses will further exacerbate access to dwindling supplies from the degrading water catchments drying underground reserves and declining rainfall trends. Increasing drought events and flooding are in turn likely to exacerbate the frequency and magnitude of epidemics from water-borne diseases such as typhoid and cholera (as well as to influence the incidence of vector-borne diseases.

The identification and mapping of climate hotspots will be of great benefit towards the planning of adaptation options since the knowledge of where these hotspots are would require actions to be taken that would prevent high incidences of hazards from resulting in high levels of human vulnerability. Specifically, the mapping of the hotspots will go a long way in achieving Enhanced capacity at regional, national, sectorial and local levels to further identify and understand climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation responses, and to select and implement practical, effective and high priority adaptation actions.

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Title: Planning for Resilience in East Africa through Policy, Adaptation, Research and Economic Development(PREPARED) Vulnerability and “Hotspot” Mapping
Publication by: Oludhe et al.
Publication Date: 2014
Abstract: It is known that the East African region is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change with the key sectors and drivers of the region’s economy at risk for being severely impacted. Projected shifts and extremes in rainfall patterns and increasing temperatures will lead to adverse impacts on social, physical, ecological and economic systems. Impacts of climate change could include declining crops yields and increasing food insecurity; glacial melt; increased frequency and intensity of droughts and floods; reduced water supply; increase in pests and diseases for livestock, wildlife and crops; increase of vector-borne diseases, including malaria and Rift Valley Fever; spread of water-borne diseases such a dysentery, bilharzia, cholera and typhoid; increase in invasive species; declining levels of fresh water resources; rising sea levels, leading to displacement of people and disruption of both terrestrial and marine ecosystems and other important natural habitats; and natural resource-based conflict among communities due to declining water and pastures.

For the vulnerable populations, competing needs for water from domestic livestock, irrigated crops and industrial uses will further exacerbate access to dwindling supplies from the degrading water catchments drying underground reserves and declining rainfall trends. Increasing drought events and flooding are in turn likely to exacerbate the frequency and magnitude of epidemics from water-borne diseases such as typhoid and cholera (as well as to influence the incidence of vector-borne diseases.

The identification and mapping of climate hotspots will be of great benefit towards the planning of adaptation options since the knowledge of where these hotspots are would require actions to be taken that would prevent high incidences of hazards from resulting in high levels of human vulnerability. Specifically, the mapping of the hotspots will go a long way in achieving Enhanced capacity at regional, national, sectorial and local levels to further identify and understand climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation responses, and to select and implement practical, effective and high priority adaptation actions.

Download full report.


© 2016 IGAD Climate Prediction & Applications Centre.