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Climate Watch (October 2016)

ENSO Status and The Potential Impacts over The Greater Horn of Africa During The  OND 2016 Rainfall Seasons

Latest Products Updates

Regional Consensus Statements

GHACOF 50 Statement

The Fiftieth Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF50) was convened from 27-28 August 2018 at Serena Hotel, Kigali, Rwanda The forum reviewed he forum reviewed the state of the global and regional climate systems and their implications on the consensus regional climate outlook for the October to December 2018 rainfall season over the GHA region.

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ECMWF’s System-4 Verification against in-situ Observations
March-May (MAM) and October-December (OND) anomaly correlation coefficients and CRPSSs are shown as a function of lead times. As expected the prediction skill declines with increasing lead time. The predictability skill is observed to be higher in OND than MAM seasons due to strong teleconnections between ENSO and Indian Ocean

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Assessment of the skill of ECHAM 4.5 in simulating rainfall on seasonal time scales over the GHA region
The study assessed the skill of ECHAM 4.5 in simulating rainfall on seasonal time scales over the GHA region for the period Jan 1961- Dec 2008. Better and appreciable skill is obtained when ensemble forecasting is applied than individual model members.

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Assessment of the reliability and outcomes of GPCs or LCs-LRFMME products
The seasonal rainfall forecasting at ICPAC is usually a hybrid of statistical and dynamical products; the latter being derived from Global Producing Center Models (GPCs). Averaging individual models yields a single model (ensemble) with better representation of climatology than individual models. The Equatorial sector yielded strong model skill; an indication of models strength in capturing rainfall bearing systems like ITCZ.

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Evaluation of Rainfall Baseline and Projections for the Greater Horn of Africa Countries Using Cordex
Most of the RCMs reasonably simulate the main features of the rainfall climatology over the region and also reproduce ENSO and IOD signals. There are significant biases in individual model however, the ensemble mean show better agreement with observation. In general, the analysis demonstrates that the multimodel ensemble mean simulates regional rainfall adequately and this motivates their use for future climate projections.

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Verification & Analysis of Temperature and Rainfall in the GHA
The skill of the RSM model has been assessed in simulating the annual cycle, and inter-annual variability during MAM and OND seasons over GHA region. The skill of the model is better for the short term range, and is best within the first 24 to 48 hours, and decreases dramatically thereafter. RSM simulates fairly well the general pattern of the seasonal migration of the ITCZ over the GHA. The seasonal predictability over Equatorial Eastern Africa is better during the OND season, when the weather systems and oceanic controls are steadier and better organized than the long rainfall season (March-May). However, the accuracy of dynamically downscaled prediction products still poses a challenge over the area due to the inherent challenges in the model.

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© 2016 IGAD Climate Prediction & Applications Centre.