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ICPAC routinely produces Seasonal Consensus Outlooks every season, one-to-two-month lead monthly and seasonal deterministic (WRF) and probabilistic (GCM) bias – corrected forecasts of precipitation and 2M-temperature for GHA. Data for seven GCMs are obtained every month from IRI data library.
Consensus Outlook for OND 16
Precipitation2 2mtemperature1


2M - Temperature

GCM Forecast for DJF 16/17
Ensemble_Prec_1monLead_DJF2017_TercileProb Ensemble_Prec_1monLead_DJF2017_Total Ensemble_TT2m_1monLead_DJF2017_TercileProb Ensemble_TT2m_1monLead_DJF2017_Average

Tercile Precipitation

Total Precipitation

Tercile 2M-Temperature

Average 2M-Temperature

WRF Forecast for DJF 16/17
WRF_Prec_1monLeadDJF_Anomaly WRF_Prec_1monLeadDJF_Total WRF_TT2m_1monLeadDJF_Anomaly WRF_TT2m_1monLeadDJF_Average

Precipitation Anomaly

Total Precipitation

Temperature Anomaly

Temperature Average

© 2016 IGAD Climate Prediction & Applications Centre.