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ICPAC routinely produces Seasonal Consensus Outlooks every season, one-to-two-month lead monthly and seasonal deterministic (WRF) and probabilistic (GCM) bias – corrected forecasts of precipitation and 2M-temperature for GHA. Data for seven GCMs are obtained every month from IRI data library.
Consensus Outlook for MAM 2017
COF-44-Climate-Outlook-for-OND-2016 GHA-Consensus-Mean-Temperature-Outlook-for-MAM-2017

Climate Outlook

Temperature

GCM Forecast for AMJ 2017
Ensemble_Prec_1monLead_AMJ2017_ProbEmprCDF Ensemble_Prec_1monLead_AMJ2017_Total_BsC Ensemble_TT2m_1monLead_AMJ2017_Average_BsC Ensemble_TT2m_1monLead_AMJ2017_ProbEmprCDF

 Precipitation Tercile Bias Correction

Precipitation Total Bias Correction

Temperature Average Bias Correction

 Temperature Tercile Bias Correction

WRF Forecast for AMJ 2017
WRF_Prec_1monLeadAMJ_Anomaly WRF_Prec_1monLeadAMJ_Total WRF_TT2m_1monLeadAMJ_Anomaly WRF_TT2m_1monLeadAMJ_Avg

Precipitation Anomaly

Precipitation Total

Temperature Anomaly

Temperature Average

© 2016 IGAD Climate Prediction & Applications Centre.