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ICPAC routinely produces Seasonal Consensus Outlooks every season, one-to-two-month lead monthly and seasonal deterministic (WRF) and probabilistic (GCM) bias – corrected forecasts of precipitation and 2M-temperature for GHA. Data for seven GCMs are obtained every month from IRI data library.
Consensus Outlook for OND 2018
GHACOF50_A4_Prob-PPT_v2_DmEDkyy GHACOF50_A4_Prob-TMP_v2

Climate Outlook


GCM Forecast for OND 2018
Ensemble_Prec_2monLead_OND_ProbRanNorm_Rgr Ensemble_Prec_2monLead_OND_Total_Rgr Ensemble_TT2m_2monLead_OND_Average_Rgr Ensemble_TT2m_2monLead_OND_ProbRanNorm_Rgr

Precipitation Terciles

Precipitation Total

Temperature Average

 Temperature Tercile

WRF Forecast for OND 2018
WRF_PrecEnsemble_2monLead_OND_Total WRF_TT2m_2monLead_OND_Avg

Precipitation Total

Temperature Average

© 2016 IGAD Climate Prediction & Applications Centre.